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Article Source: ReutersChina, India and Japan are planning cuts of at least 10 percent in Iranian crude imports as tightening U.S. sanctions make it difficult for the top Asian buyers to keep doing business with the OPEC producer.
The countries together buy about 45 percent of Iran's crude exports. The reductions are the first significant evidence of how much crude business Iran could lose in Asia this year as Washington tries to tighten a financial noose around Tehran.
This time it appears China is going to cooperate against Iran . That could have a big effect .
#1 - Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:55 PM ESTI know this is going to hurt Iran but I wonder what it's going to do to the rest of the market. China, India and Japan are going to have to get their oil somewhere else and change the balance of supply and demand. I support sanctions on Iran, and they seem to be having an effect, but disrupting the oil supply coupled with speculation can send prices through roof. So from an international safety aspect, I'm glad to see this. But from a household provider standpoint already feeling the crunch, I'm a little nervous to say the least. I hope there's some substance to the talk about Iran talking to the IAEA but I'm not holding my breath.
China, India and Japan are going to have to get their oil somewhere else and change the balance of supply and demand.
Yep , temporarily . It is better to do this now than later when there is even less oil available .
ed --
I don't know if the offer is still on the table, but Saudi Arabia said a couple of weeks ago they would increase production to offset the shortage.
Of course, no one mentioned what the convenience is going to cost.
I know this is going to hurt Iran but I wonder what it's going to do to the rest of the market. China, India and Japan are going to have to get their oil somewhere else and change the balance of supply and demand.
Saudi Arabia has excess spare capacity. Plus Libya will probably restore most of it's exports this year. In addition, the US and other countries will continue to import less.
The mullahs will strike back. For all we know, some of them are having to wear the same dresses two days in a row.
#2 - Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:44 PM ESTThere has to be a way out of this without going to war. There is a reason Iran is playing these shell games. It is costing them too much to do this without any apparent gain (except for their government to consolidate power).
That is a gain for them. They can lay blame on external forces.
As for the reason, they want a nuke. It is a hegemonic goal and they will not be stopped.
A national emergency program to convert cars and trucks to run on CNC and build the infrastructure to support it. The result would be freedom from imported oil and a drastic reduction in its price. Politicians would have to learn how to get along without the huge contributions from the industry. We could eliminate the subsidies to the industry and tell the middle east to pound sand. It is time to end this nonsense.
You are, of course correct. One solution is to convert to non petroleum sources for energy. However, when (not if) these rogue countries obtain nuclear weapons, the rest of the world will be forced to address their political problems for them. They cannot be allowed to use such weapons on each other. Even if we ignore the resulting loss of human life resulting from a nuclear war in the Mideast, we cannot ignore the ecological impact it would have on the rest of us.
Oh, and also I am inviting you to become my friend.
Hopefully if an when they have nuclear weapons our military and political leaders have come to the conclusion that war is the last resort but if it has to be it needs to be swift terrible and complete. The stupidity of "winning their hearts and minds" can't be overstated. Had we fought to win and declared Marshall law, shot first and asked questions later shut down all meeting places including religious ones it would have resulted in fewer causalities and a swift end to the war. After trillions of dollars, thousands of lives they still are not our friends and will never be. Nation building doesn't work. Neither does arming insurgents we tried that with the Taliban and now idiots are talking of arming insurgents in Syria. They will only stock pile them and use them against us in the future.
Becks72
Short of genocide, I see force as useless. The cultures of the Mideast will not forgive any action that would cause loss of life among the clans and tribes. The one thing that unites these groups is a threat of harm.
Another problem is actually mentioned in your last comment (2.5). The Russians were actually trying to do just as you suggested in Afghanistan. The USA interceded by backing the Taliban. If anyone tries to do to Syria or Iran what Russia was attempting to do in Afghanistan, there would be other forces who would supply insurgents to counter.
The escalation you mention happens what ever outside action is taken.
The best thing to do is to take their nuclear capabilites away (I have already said that is impossible) and let them shoot each other until both sides are all dead.
I doubt if anybody can be stopped from making whatever weapon they want. Actually it's rather naive to even try.
#3 - Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:13 AM ESTIf the mullahs get the nuke, it will spark an arms race among the Sunnis.
#4 - Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:58 AM ESTNot just an arms race, but increase the possibility of a nuclear winter for the rest of us.
Yes, particularly now, given the ultra-volatile nature of the ill-managed Arab Spring and extremists moving into leadership.
I don't think the extremists can hold power for long. History shows (with a few notable exceptions) that the population has a way of moderating extreme leaders. If these countries can keep their democratic dreams, things will moderate. At least I hope so -- for everybody's concern.
The cuts from China and India are significant, given that they are both developing nations that have tremendous need for oil. Iran is being squeezed but time will tell whether it makes them change any direction here. We are certainly looking at higher oil prices for a long time to come.
#5 - Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:46 AM ESTGood to see you here, NM.
These countries China, Japan, and India, are caught between a 'rock and a hard place.' If they continue to buy large quantities of oil from Iran, they are financing their nuclear capabilities (a threat to all). If they cut imports from Iran, oil supplies become shorter, and prices go up. That process will only cause suffering as a result of shortfalls. The suffering will cause political unrest in their countries which will cause more suffering, and increase costs even more.
The 10% cut sends a message to the rest of the world that they are in agreement that Iran needs to become more cooperative, and minimizes the effect of shortages.
The problem with this strategy is no one is sattisfied. Result -- politics as usual and not solution.
You see and understand the problem well, JLW! No, there are no solutions. Those countries, esp. the poor ones - China and India - do have a major dilemma. There is only so much they can do to support the cause, and anything more will throw them into even greater (esp. India) economic and political unrest.
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